Why the Obama/Clinton ticket is inevitable

These past months have seen Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton go from friendly rivals to bitter ones. And their respective supporters are almost as partisan. Half of Hillary's bloc say they will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee, and a good portion of Obama's say the same. Add to that the fact that Bill and Hillary Clinton have estranged African-American voters with their various [percieved] insinuations about his race.

What's happened is the near tearing-apart of the Democratic Party's most important voting blocs. This is the fault mostly of the Democrats' political theology. They held that a person's race or sex was a determining factor in that person's political value. Women will vote for Hillary because she is a woman. Everyone else will vote for her so it can be a symbol for overcoming sexism. People will vote for Barack Obama as a symbol for overcoming racism etc.

Both are noble thoughts, of course. The problem is that it translates very harshly in politics when the "first woman" and "first black" candidates have to endure the same kind of scrutiny that George W. Bush or John Kerry (*cough*) did.

America DOES need to elect a "first" [fill in blank], but American voters should not change the rules when it comes to qualifications for those candidates. The lesson that Democrats need to learn with this year's two Democrat candidates is: race and sex must take a backseat to policy ideas. It is the focus on victimization that is tearing Democrats apart. Finally they've been hoisted on their own petard: Hillary Clinton knows what it is like to be accused of racism when she is clearly not racist. Barack Obama knows the dangers that come with critisizing a female, even if those criticisms are legitimate.

Will they learn? That's the question. My answer is: no, they won't. But what they will realize before November is that they must pull the coalition together to win against John McCain. And to do that, Obama will need Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate. The reasons are numerous.

First, no other white candidate --male (Strickland, Warner) or female (Sebelius, Napolitano)--will do. Hillary has legitimized herself. She's winning 48% of the Democratic vote in the primaries. By this time the frontrunner has the nomination wrapped up, yet Obama has weakened not strengthened, over time. His problems with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright have alienated southern white voters, the moderate types who would vote for Bill Clinton or George Bush. Hillary Clinton is Obama's only chance of winning this bloc. Conversely, if Hillary were capable of winning the nomination, she would need Obama because of the alienation that occured between African-American voters and the Clintons.

More importantly, the reason for an Obama/Hillary ticket is to keep all the regular Democrat votes voting Democrat. As I pointed out above, a large section of each candidate's constituency are threatening to jump to McCain if their candidate doesn't get the nomination. If this were to happen, McCain would be riding the train to a more probable victory.

Here's why it won't happen: the Democrats are realizing this as the Denver convention approaches. Obama has recently given a rationale for putting Hillary on the ticket, and there have been rumors that Bill Clinton has been pushing his wife for the VP slot behind the scenes. Whatever water may have passed under the bridge, the idea of possible defeat in November is a stronger drink than personal hatred.

That means McCain needs to gear up. He has to hope that the college vote gets too drunk to vote, he has to hope his hand-extensions to Union workers and African-Americans will add to his constituency. He has to hope, above all, that not a single person who voted for George W. Bush stays home. God Help Us All.