Friday, August 29, 2008

Coming post on pros and cons of Sarah Palin

Needless to say, I am pumped by the pick of AK Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate. And there are a lot of good things she brings, which I will explore. But there are also some issues--legitimate ones--that the Dems have already brought up. The same ones that concerned many of us when her name was mentioned.

More on this later, folks...

Confirmed

Sarah Palin IS McCain's running-mate, the AP says.

http://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2008/08/29/mccain_said_to_choose_alaska_gov_as_running_mate

Sarah Palin!!!

Wow. Just wow.

I'm quite stunned. This is quite unexpected. I know her name was brought up last December. I remember hearing it brought up by a caller on The Hugh Hewitt Show. This is a good pick, but not without it's problems. But I'll leave those alone for right now.

Bill Kristol is the one who confirmed Joe Biden was Obama's pick, so we have no reason yet to doubt this source:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Prediction: Romney

My prediction is that by tomorrow morning, or even later this evening, Romney will be revealed as the Veep choice for John McCain. It just makes too much sense for him to br the VP. And the fact that a "unity" tour is planned, which will include McCain with Huckabee and Romney making up?

Of course we could be very surprised....

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

No Contest

So far my poll for McCain's Secretary of State has been a near no-contest win for John Bolton. I think he's great, but I'm surprised there were no votes at all for John Ashcroft!

Though undoubtedly I need to expand my poll-viewership...

Sarah Palin

Four Possibilities for McCain

I've broken this down real simple.

1] Lieberman/Ridge. If chosen, will be meant to showcase his maverick streak. He'll be making Obama look like a wimp, though a moderate. If Lieberman is chosen, it will signal McCain's dedication to "bipartisanship." This is a dangerous game to play. McCain DOES NOT want his ticket to be "more or less" the same as Obama's on being moderate. Obama/Biden is of course VERY left-wing, but there's only so much the media is going to admit and therefore only so much that swing voters will know about them. If the media picked up the tack that "Well, both tickets are moderate...But Obama is the better of them." Like I said, dangerous to play that game.

2) Romney/Pawlenty. By choosing either of these guys, McCain is playing the swing-state game. Romney carries a lot of positives. Mid-west voters love Romney, and Michigan also goes into play. I'd also submit that Minnesota is in play with Romney. Afterall, he won the state in the primaries. But the negative is that Evangelical christians, who largely supported Huckabee in the primaries, will be turned off by his selection. The upside of Romney is that he's vetted, he can debate the hell out of Biden, he has money for campaigning (it may not look good, but what the heck?), and he was the runner-up in primary votes. Pawlenty is safer choice. Despite his more left-leaning views on Global Warming ("cimate change"), and few lesser things, he has the charm to lull swing voters to like him. He's young, down-to-earth, and is sufficiently a good debater.

Romney Downside: Huckabee supporters/evangelicals. Primary history with McCain, can be used to Democrats advantage.
Pawlenty Downside: Lukewarm-conservative on many issues. Perhaps will not match-up well with Biden's mouth-running-contest.

3) Palin/Hutchison/Fiorina. Choosing a woman VP may steal a very good portion of former Hillary supporters who voted on the grounds that it was time to put a woman in the White House. My feelings on this are mixed. On one hand we Republicans can't wait until we feel sincere enough to choose a woman (or minority) to lead us. Nor should we be afraid of our sincerity being questioned by the Democrats for doing so; after all they do it all the time. On the other hand, we want fully-qualified women and minorities just as we want fully-qualified white males. It's a matter of experience and judgement. Kay Bailey Hutchison is the that woman. But, her downside is that she's a boring person. Very. Sarah Palin has only been governor for about a year or so, and Carly Fiorina has a spotty background in leading Hewlett-Packard. So when considering a woman, we have to take our chances.

4) Jindal/Steele/JC Watts. This boat carries some of the same problems as the one above. There's the "sincerity" problem again, and the experience problem. Jindal has only been governor for a short time. Michael Steele is a GREAT guy and I love him, but he has lost a major election for senate, and his experience as Lt. Governor is not suficient. JC Watts would be a great pick, on the other hand. In many ways, he's the best pick McCain has. But he seems to be totally passed over. Perhaps insiders know something we don't?

Monday, August 25, 2008

Orson Scott Card on Solzhenitsyn, Bush, and America

Some of this may be re-hash of what we already know, but it's great to know that one of my favorite Sci-Fi writers agrees with me on the issue of Foreign Policy and America's liberal elites.

The link is here....

http://www.ornery.org/cgi-bin/printer_friendly.cgi?page=/essays/warwatch/2008-08-10-1.html

The best:

["They thrill at causes like saving Darfur, saving the desaparecidos of Argentina, saving just about everybody. The problem is that all this "saving" can only be done by the use of or the threat of America's overwhelming military force. All the "negotiations" they call for to solve such problems are absurd if there is no credible threat of force behind them."]

["The whole world would love to have our prosperity. But the whole world does not admire our moral emptiness, our hedonism, the stupidity with which we destroy our core institutions in the name of transient fads, our undependability, and the cowardice of those who vote for war and then undercut their own troops so they can appear "peace-loving" at election time."]

["Alexandr Solzhenitsyn died last week. For the last thirty years of his life he was almost unheard-of. He was dismissed by our media elite as a has-been, a grumpy old man who dared to criticize them as scathingly as he criticized the Communists. They declared him No Longer Interesting."]

["Just as Americans who speak the truth to the elitists who want to be our overlords are dismissed as cranks, fanatics, madmen. Supposed defenders of liberty want to pass laws that would destroy their opponents on talk radio. Supposed defenders of tolerance seek to silence any who would express their religious views as part of our political conversation. Unsupported assertions are taken as facts by people who claim to be intellectuals. The edicts of judges, unfounded in law, are worshiped, while they treat democratically enacted laws with contempt. They want to have their way without a breath of dissent; they refuse to admit that anyone who disagrees with them might know something useful."]

READ THE WHOLE THING!

Those good 'ole days of atheistic Democrats, gone?

I see that the Democratic Convention has opened with prayer. Congratulations on gettin' relijun, my friends. Question: are you praying to God or Obama?

10 Ways Biden MIGHT Help Obama (aka 10 Ways Obama Hoped Biden Might Help Him)

Ok, so enough of the "Biden won't help Obama" talk. While I largely agree with that, and have stated it myself, it is also true that Obama isn't an idiot. This is a guy who RUNS on political calculation, because that's all he has. So why Biden? There have to be logical, cynical, political reasons.

However, these are merely my intuition based on my observance of Obama's campaign. Thus, the word "might" in title of this post.

In no particular order...

1) Obama is African-American. Biden is White, with a Irish/Welsh-Catholic family background. Obama figures that he needs to go with a white male VP to assure voters (whom he percieves as racist voters, of course) that he isn't going to pull any punches by selecting a minority or a female and turn this country into a minority-presidents-only-bonanza (which is probably what Obama thinks these types of voters think.)

2) Biden knows Washington DC workings. He's been there a long time: 36 years. So while it does run counter to his message of being "new" and his intention to do things differently, he still needs a key to the city. This is a practical consideration. Biden is his key. And to be fair to Obama, Hillary hasn't been there as long. Furthermore, even though Bill Clinton was president and would be extremely helpful, Obama and he do not seem to get along. So Obama goes with a different manifestation of the Clinton Years: Biden.

3) Joe Biden has a son in the military. While it is uncomfortable and often controversial to bring up this sort of thing in politics, it is nevertheless a consideration that voters take into account. John McCain has a son (or sons?) in Iraq, and all of his supporters know it, but keep it to a whisper. What Biden's son does for Obama is neutralize any possibility for a voter to reason, "Hmm. John McCain walks the walk, because he has a son over in Iraq and still believes we need to win the war, while Obama and [VP] don't."

4) Biden is Catholic. This wasn't a very good reason to pick Biden considering that Kerry was such a failure with the Catholic vote, but it's a reason nonetheless. I'm sure it passed through the minds of the Obama staff when considering Biden.

5) Biden voted for the war. Aha! you may say, but doesn't this run counter to his message (again?!) ? It does indeed. But think of it like this: Biden voted for the war, he now opposes the war, and he's not only a talker because he has a son in the military who is going to Iraq*." And this connnects to the following reason...

[ * NOTE: and God Bless Joe Biden's son for his service, and God keep him safe and all the men and women serving there.]

6) Biden is percieved as a foreign policy wonk. Yes, it's true that Biden is a fool on FP, nevertheless he knows the issues involved and has served on senate committees dealing with foreign policy. And most importantly: whoever McCain chooses as his own VP, Obama hopes to catch him weak in discussing foreign policy with Joe Biden.

7) Biden is close to Hillary...close enough. I don't know why this would work, but Obama still wants to reach out to Hillary Supporters who are mad about him trying to (purportedly) sever the Clinton Arm off the Democratic Party. It's not working (duh), but you Biden is what came closest while qualifying with the above reasons, as well as with these last three...

8) Biden is percieved as moderate (enough). While Biden is clearly pro-Abortion, he has not always been. He did however vote to ban partial-birth abortion. Whose vote you can find here....

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=108&session=1&vote=00402

...Also, Biden vote for the Iraq War, and is in many cases hawkish. Enough so that it would comfort moderatet voters who see FP as their prime voting issue.

9) Biden off-sets the "Obama is too young" argument. Now, I don't think there is a problem with Obama's age ( he is 47), I think the problem is with his lack of achievements, lack of good judgement, and the creepy cult of personality he has created. But people who see him on TV (and the same is true of me) are going to see "inexperienced," "too young" written all over his face. With Biden at the one VP depate this Fall, Obama has a chance to show voters that he knows where to look for wisdom: in someone older than he. As Republicans, we understand the comical elements of that reasoning, but nevertheless...

10) Biden is going to be an attack dog against all those Evil Republicans Who Dare Question The Sincerity And Patriotism Of THE ONE. And in Biden, Obama has found someone who is very capable of saying very bluntly foolish things. I'm sure Biden will spare nothing in attacking John McCain and Republicans as racists, homophobes, sexists etc.

And that wraps up my 10 Reasons Biden was picked. However, I do have one runner-up....

11) Biden is a walking commercial for why hair plugs work. And I admit, while the little cow lick at his nape is ridiculous-looking, he looks a heck of a lot better than he was bald.

Also NOTE: Some of the reasons Obama might choose Biden that he percieves as strengths are also weaknesses. For instance: Biden may be a Clinton-Era Democrat, but who is going to notice? What they'll notice is that Biden has said "things" about Obama, and has priased McCain often.

Friday, August 22, 2008

"It IS Biden"

I think I can breathe easier now. John McCormack at The Weekly Standard Blog (http://www.weeklystandard.com/Weblogs/TWSFP/TWSFPView.asp#8198) says a source in the Obama campaign has told him: "IT IS BIDEN."



Phew! As long as it's not Hillary, or Sebelius. Now the trick is: who would go up against Biden well? Why, Romney of course!

Kaine and Bayh out?

As I suspected (not that it's hard to do), there was a headfake towards Bayh and Kaine. Now reports have it that they are out of the game. So he eliminates two of the easy-to-run-against guys for the Republicans. It's down to Sebelius, Biden, Kerry, and worst case scenario for Republicans: Hillary. I have an aching feeling in my stomach. Hillary is a surefire way to win back the people he estranged during the primaries.

Please lord, one of the others....

Head fakes and head shakes

Obama-Bayh: Supposedly there are bumper stickers being printed right at this moment, with the Illinois-Indiana team on it.

This is the worst pick at all for Obama. I get the feeling people will like Bayh in general. He IS more moderate than many other Democrats, bu then, he DOES come from Indiana. Not Deleware.

I get the feeling though that Bayh will be a very boring running mate, which is what Obama wants on a personal level (WHO DARES STEAL HIS SPOTLIGHT!) Also, he won't necessarily provide the assurance to undecided voters that Obama is not going to govern radicaclly.

Obama-Kaine: Pathetic. This is one of the best tickets the Republicans can hope for. How on earth is a man as naive--though older--as Obama going to help him? That's the thing with these Democrat governors. They're the same as Senators in personality.

I still think Obama's BEST pick would have been Phil Bredesen. But I think we're going to see Obama-Sebelius. This Bayh bumper sticker thing could be another head fake. I think the Dems are smart enough to calculate the best way to use the media coverage of a Veep choice is to do something out of the box: thus a woman veep, BUT NOT HILLARY. And Sebelius is the best way to do that.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Veep Watch Dead?

I've noticed that The Club For Growth's VP blog is dead. No updates since July 14th. They went on longer than I did, but still. I'm just an amateur. You'd think that with the rising talk about Lieberman, Pawlenty, Romney, Kain, Biden, and Kerry that ole' Nachama Solevechik would be up and running.

Ah well. That's less competition for me.

REVELATION!

I just had a huge revelation.

You know the theory of a presidential candidate floating a name for VP around, to see if it catches? That's why you're hearing McCain-Lieberman right now. But that's not because McCain has any doubt about choosing a pro-lifer over a pro-choicer. He doesn't. What's happening (my theory only) is that McCain preparing to choose Romney. To put the Evangelicals to rest about Romney's pro-life creds though, he first has to scare the bejesus out of them with Lieberman.

ROMNEY NEWS & I'M BACK!

1. Evangelicals and Romney talk, from The Boston Globe. Here...

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/08/evangelicals_an.html

I don't get it. They say the anti-Romney movement isn't about his mormonism; that it's really about his change of position on abortion. If that's so, then why haven't Evangelical Leaders said anything about Tom Ridge? In any case, Romney is no longer pro-choice. Tom Ridge is. See the difference, folks?

You may have heard Mike Huckabee's recent dagger move at Romney as well, saying in an interview that Romney is unacceptable as VP, BUT NOT BECAUSE HE'S MORMON!

Yeah. Riiiiiight.


Not that anyone really cares, but this is my first blog post here in quite some time. My excuse is that I've been working, trying to get my car in tip-top shape for this coming semester, and quite forgot that my blog even existed. In any case, the VP race is heating back up as each presidential candidate is sizing up his fellow pols for the Veepship. I've noticed that Romney and Pawlenty are back as the most mentioned names for McCain, and Jindal is not. Neither is Palin or Steele, which is a shame. I liked both.

Time Kaine for Obama? That would be GREAT. Time Kaine is well-intentioned Democrat, somewhat moderate whose greatest strength (in Republican terms) is that he would make absolutely no impact on whether Obama got less or more votes. Will he be the Veep? WE WISH!

There's also talk of John Kerry. Frankly, that would be an extremely unsavvy pick for Obama. If he's trying to out-Vietnam Vet McCain, he can do better (though not as well). In any case Kerry is not seen as a Vietnam WAr hero. He's seen as a jerk who slimed American troops, who threw away his medal, and who joined the "we hate America at any cost"/Jane Fonda brigade. And then there's the fact that George Bush (who isn't supposed to be popular) beat John Kerry in 2004 by a nifty margin. So will he be the Veep? WE WISH!